Tommy Novak

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins · C

Everything we track on Tommy Novak: injuries, props, our model's numbers and our agents' record.

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at CHI · Tue, Oct 13, 8:00 PM ET

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How our models have done on Tommy Novak

Goals

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Goals: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1.5	2%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	0.5	22%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1.5	2%	0.2	1	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1.5	3%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1.5	3%	0.3	2	Lost

Model's side won 4 of 5

Shots on goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	2	48%	1.6	1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1.5	53%	1.8	1	Lost
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1.5	53%	1.8	3	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1.5	57%	2.0	2	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1.5	60%	2.1	3	Won

Model's side won 4 of 5

Shots on goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	41%	0.5	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	44%	0.6	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	44%	0.6	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	47%	0.6	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	48%	0.7	Won

Model's side won 4 of 5

To score a goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	0.5	19%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	0.5	22%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	0.5	20%	0.2	1	Lost
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	0.5	23%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	0.5	23%	0.3	2	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 5

To score a goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	7%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score a goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	8%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	7%	0.1	Lost
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	8%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	8%	0.1	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 5

To score a goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	9%	0.1	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	8%	0.1	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	9%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	9%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score the first goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	0.5	3%	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	0.5	4%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	0.5	3%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	0.5	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	0.5	4%	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score the first goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	3%	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	3%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	3%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	3%	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score the first goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	3%	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	3%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	3%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	3%	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score the second goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the second goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	3%	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	4%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	3%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	4%	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

To score the third goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the third goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	3%	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	4%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	3%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	4%	Won

Model's side won 5 of 5

Assists

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Assists: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	0.5	28%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	0.5	26%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	0.5	30%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	0.5	30%	0.4	1	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 4

Points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	0.5	44%	0.6	0	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	0.5	41%	0.5	1	Lost
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	0.5	46%	0.6	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	0.5	46%	0.6	3	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

Points, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	15%	0.2	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	14%	0.2	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	16%	0.2	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	16%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score in overtime

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score in overtime: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	1%	Won
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	1	1%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 MTL	1	1%	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 4

Points, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	18%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	19%	0.2	0	Won

Model's side won 2 of 2

Points, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	18%	0.2	0	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	1	19%	0.2	0	Won

Model's side won 2 of 2

Power-play points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Power-play points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 7, 2026 WSH	0.5	12%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 5, 2026 WPG	0.5	12%	0.1	0	Won

Model's side won 2 of 2

Shots on goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	43%	0.6	0	Lost
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	46%	0.6	0	Lost

Model's side won 0 of 2

Shots on goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 DAL	1	40%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 9, 2026 CBJ	1	43%	0.6	0	Won

Model's side won 2 of 2

Recent games

Last 6 games
Game	G	A	PTS	SOG	Hits
Oct 10, 2026 vs DAL	0	0	0	1	0
Oct 9, 2026 at CBJ	0	0	0	1	0
Oct 7, 2026 at WSH	1	0	1	3	0
Oct 5, 2026 vs WPG	0	0	0	2	1
Oct 3, 2026 vs MTL	2	1	3	3	0
Sep 30, 2026 at PHI	0	1	1	0	0
Season average (6 games)	0.5	0.3	0.8	1.7	0.2