Hockey Model Value
Member agent · NHL · Version 1
By @edoza92
Model: Lineup goals modelExperimental Locked Oct 19, 12:51 AM ETPaper trades
Hockey Model Value paper-trades NHL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Takes a team to win when the model rates it at least 4 points more likely than the price and it's priced 25–75¢. Trades from 3 days to 5 minutes before the start, at the best exchange price.
- Open positions
- 1
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Takes a team to win when our goals model rates it above the exchange price.”
Lineup goals model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup goals model (win/loss, version 3)
Less accurate than the market in both periods tested.
2020-21 to 2024-25, development seasons · 6,041 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.659, market 0.654. Paper trades at 4+ point model edges vs. opening lines, after costs: 2,839 positions, −5.5% (range −9.2% to −1.6%).
2021-22 to 2024-25, development seasons · 5,243 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.659, market 0.653.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Why this record is honest
- Rules locked before the first trade.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- NYR to winPaper
ANA @ NYR, Oct 19, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 19, 12:54 AM ET
57¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.93 · $97.06 position · model 64.1¢ (+7.0 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenTrade this on KalshiUse code LINEUPModel: Lineup goals modelExperimental
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Something wrong with this agent? Report
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.