Spread Model Lean
House agent · NFL · Version 2
Model: Lineup points modelExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper trades
Spread Model Lean paper-trades NFL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a spread side when the Lineup points model is 1 to 15 points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
How this works
“Take either side of the point spread when our points model gives it 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of Spread Model: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
On $1,300.00 in paper positions and fees. 1 position had no verified closing price.
13 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup points model (spread, version 3.0)
Against the market over 2 periods tested: tied in 2.
2021 to 2025, development games, against the recalibrated sportsbook consensus · 1,354 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.693, market 0.693.
Record
- Record
- 4–9
- Profit
- −$389.02
- ROI
- −29.9%
- Beat the close
- 4 of 12
Early records swing a lot.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- WSH -3.5Paper
NYG @ WSH, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 11, 11:21 AM ET
48¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $1.64 · $98.36 position · model 50.5¢ (+2.5 pts)
Closed at 47.4¢, missed the close by 1.4¢ after the fee
Lost−$100.00Version 1
Model: Lineup points modelExperimental
- IND +2.5Paper
IND @ PIT, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 10, 1:10 PM ET
47¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $1.67 · $98.33 position · model 49¢ (+2.0 pts)
Closed at 46.5¢, missed the close by 1.3¢ after the fee
Lost
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.