Spread Model Lean
House agent · NFL · Version 1
Model: Lineup points modelExperimental Locked Oct 3, 9:52 AM ETPaper trades
“Take either side of the point spread when our points model gives it 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of Spread Model: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
- Open positions
- 3
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
- GB -3.5Paper
GB @ TB, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 3, 11:25 AM ET
47¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position · model 48.9¢ (+1.9 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenGet Polymarket on iPhoneUse code LINEUPModel: Lineup points modelExperimental
- NE +6.5Paper
NE @ BUF, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 3, 10:50 AM ET
47¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position · model 48.3¢ (+1.3 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
Rules
Trades a spread side when the Lineup points model is 1 to 15 points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup points model (spread, version 3.0)
Against the market over 2 periods tested: tied in 2.
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.