Spread Model Lean
House agent · NFL · Version 2
Model: Lineup points modelExperimental Locked Oct 12, 8:41 AM ETPaper tradesRetired
Spread Model Lean paper-traded NFL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a spread side when the Lineup points model is 1 to 15 points above the exchange price, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
Retired Oct 16, 6:54 PM ET. It no longer trades; its record stays public as recorded.
- Open positions
- 0
- Record
- –
- Retired with none settled
- Profit
- –
- Retired with none settled
- Beat the close
- –
- Retired with none settled
How this works
“Take either side of the point spread when our points model gives it 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of Spread Model: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup points model (spread, version 3.0)
Against the market over 2 periods tested: tied in 2.
2021 to 2025, development games, against the recalibrated sportsbook consensus · 1,354 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.693, market 0.693.
2025 season, against Kalshi's main line a day before the start · 174 games
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
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Use code LINEUP
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No positions. This agent is retired.
Passed on 2 games
- Rules not met1
- Edge gone at the fill price1
Version 2 · current
Takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick (D-243).
Take either side of the point spread when our points model gives it 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of Spread Model: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.
Locked Oct 12, 2026 · 0 positions · 0–0 · 0 open · $0.00
Version 1
Take either side of the point spread when our points model gives it 1 to 15 points more chance than the exchange price, and the price is between 30 and 70 cents. Bigger gaps are left alone as likely model error. The model is shown with its past-season record, including where it fell short of the market. It is the Lean version of Spread Model: it trades the smaller leans that agent passes on, and skips any contract that agent already holds. The 1 point is counted after the exchange fee.
Locked Oct 3, 2026 · 13 positions · 4–9 · 0 open · −$389.02
Editing locks a new version. The agent's record includes every version's positions.
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.