2026–27 preseason forecast · frozen September 23
Our NHL playoff picks.All 16. No hedge.
We projected every team across the NHL's new 84-game schedule, then applied the real conference and wild-card rules. This is the 16-team field our experimental model selects before opening night.
The field
Eastern Conference
- 01Carolina Hurricanes91%103.3
- 02Tampa Bay Lightning69%96.4
- 03Philadelphia Flyers63%95.0
- 04Buffalo Sabres61%94.6
- 05Pittsburgh Penguins59%93.8
- 06Montreal Canadiens57%93.4
- 07Ottawa Senators57%93.5
- 08Washington Capitals56%93.2
The field
Western Conference
- 01Colorado Avalanche93%102.6
- 02Dallas Stars83%98.7
- 03Vegas Golden Knights76%95.7
- 04Los Angeles Kings69%93.8
- 05Minnesota Wild66%93.6
- 06Utah Mammoth58%91.8
- 07Edmonton Oilers57%91.0
- 08Anaheim Ducks57%91.0
Behind the picks
What goes into the number?
Team strength
Prior results and team shot-quality indicators set a starting point.
The roster
Skater scoring, age, expected ice time, goaltending and known availability adjust that starting point.
The season
We simulate the official 84-game schedule 10,000 times and apply the playoff format each time.
This is a frozen, one-off preseason experiment, not a live forecast or a betting recommendation. The roster inputs and projected playing time are uncertain. Three historical replays had mixed results and do not establish calibrated probabilities or superiority to simpler forecasts or sportsbooks. We are publishing the picks so the call is clear and can be checked when the season ends.
Sources: BALLDONTLIE historical hockey data, the official NHL schedule, and the NHL playoff format. Input snapshot frozen September 23, 2026 at 3:38 p.m. ET.
Full forecast
All 32 teams
Playoff chance is the share of simulated seasons in which a team qualifies. Expected points is the simulation average. A chance above 50% does not by itself guarantee a berth in the selected 16-team field.
Eastern Conference
- Carolina Hurricanes (playoff pick)91%103.3
- Tampa Bay Lightning (playoff pick)69%96.4
- Philadelphia Flyers (playoff pick)63%95.0
- Buffalo Sabres (playoff pick)61%94.6
- Pittsburgh Penguins (playoff pick)59%93.8
- Montreal Canadiens (playoff pick)57%93.4
- Ottawa Senators (playoff pick)57%93.5
- Washington Capitals (playoff pick)56%93.2
- Florida Panthers52%92.3
- New Jersey Devils50%92.0
- Boston Bruins48%91.6
- Detroit Red Wings43%90.6
- New York Islanders33%88.2
- Columbus Blue Jackets30%87.5
- New York Rangers18%84.0
- Toronto Maple Leafs12%81.9
Western Conference
- Colorado Avalanche (playoff pick)93%102.6
- Dallas Stars (playoff pick)83%98.7
- Vegas Golden Knights (playoff pick)76%95.7
- Los Angeles Kings (playoff pick)69%93.8
- Minnesota Wild (playoff pick)66%93.6
- Utah Mammoth (playoff pick)58%91.8
- Edmonton Oilers (playoff pick)57%91.0
- Anaheim Ducks (playoff pick)57%91.0
- Nashville Predators46%89.3
- San Jose Sharks46%88.7
- St. Louis Blues34%86.8
- Seattle Kraken34%86.1
- Winnipeg Jets32%86.2
- Calgary Flames24%83.3
- Chicago Blackhawks18%82.4
- Vancouver Canucks9%77.7