Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: Kalshi prices and model prediction

DET

Detroit Lions

Final

45–21

Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET

ARI

Arizona Cardinals

2 agents traded this game

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How this works

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Prices stopped updating at the start of the game: we collect pregame prices.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Each position's model figure is from when it opened.

Ask the Analyst: Ask about this game: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.

How it went

Score by period
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DET	0	24	14	7	45
ARI	7	0	7	7	21

Scoring

Q4 2:11 · ARI · (Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short right to T.McBride for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin. · 45-21
Q4 5:03 · DET · J.Gibbs right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox. · 45-14
Q3 1:05 · DET · J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox. · 38-14
Q3 4:22 · ARI · J.Brissett pass short right to T.Quitoriano for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin. · 31-14
Q3 9:42 · DET · (Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep right to J.Williams for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARZ-W.Nolen was injured during the play. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten… · 31-7
Q2 0:53 · DET · J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox. · 24-7

Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
DET to win	68.9¢	69.5¢	−0.6 pts
ARI to win	31.1¢	30.5¢	+0.6 pts
DET -5.5	50¢	48.5¢	+1.5 pts
ARI +5.5	50¢	51.5¢	−1.5 pts
DET -5	51.1¢	52.4¢	−1.3 pts
ARI +5	48.9¢	51.9¢	−3.0 pts
DET -4.5	52.2¢	–	–
ARI +4.5	47.8¢	–	–
Over 54.5	50.9¢	52.6¢	−1.7 pts
Under 54.5	49.1¢	47.4¢	+1.7 pts
Over 55.5	47.9¢	48.5¢	−0.7 pts
Under 55.5	52.1¢	51.5¢	+0.7 pts
Over 55	49.4¢	52.4¢	−3.0 pts
Under 55	50.6¢	51.9¢	−1.3 pts

Source	DET to win	ARI to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	69.5¢best price	30.5¢best price
Polymarket	69.5¢	30.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	70.2¢	33.9¢
BetRivers	70.6¢	34.5¢
Caesars	71.4¢	32.8¢
DraftKings	72.1¢	32.3¢
Fanatics	71¢	33.3¢
FanDuel	69.7¢	34.5¢

Source	DET -5.5	ARI +5.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	48.5¢best price	51.5¢best price
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	52.4¢	52.4¢
Caesars	51.2¢	53.3¢
DraftKings

Source	Over 54.5	Under 54.5
Exchanges
Polymarket	52.6¢best price	47.4¢best price
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	53.1¢	51.9¢
FanDuel	54.1¢	51¢

Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 4, 4:25 PM	31.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 5:30 PM	31¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 6:30 PM	30¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 7:25 PM	29.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 7:30 PM	30¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 7:45 PM	30.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 8:00 PM	30¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 9:15 PM	29.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 9:20 PM	30¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 9:25 PM	30.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 9:45 PM	30¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 9:55 PM	29.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 10:00 PM	30¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 11:15 PM	30.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 12:10 AM	31¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 1:15 AM	32.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 1:45 AM	31.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 2:15 AM	32.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 3:20 AM	32.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 10:05 AM	33.4¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 12:10 PM	34.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 2:45 PM	33.4¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 3:05 PM	34¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 5:15 PM

How it went

Scoring

DETTeam statsARI

Our model

Lineup points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Agents that passed

Player	Line	Over	Under
Amon-Ra St. Brown	81.5	53.1¢FanDuel	52.4¢DraftKings
Elijah Higgins	9.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Isaac TeSlaa	24.5	53.1¢FanDuel	51.2¢BetMGM
Jahmyr Gibbs	37.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Jameson Williams	53.5	53.1¢DraftKings	52.6¢DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love	10.5	53.1¢FanDuel	52.4¢DraftKings
Kendrick Bourne	31.5	53.1¢DraftKings	52.6¢BetMGM
Michael Wilson	79.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Sam LaPorta	50.5	53.5¢BetMGM	53.5¢BetMGM
Sione Vaki	4.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Trey McBride	81.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Tyler Allgeier	9.5	52.4¢DraftKings	53.1¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Amon-Ra St. Brown	23.5	53.9¢DraftKings	52.6¢DraftKings
Elijah Higgins	8.5	53.7¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Isaac TeSlaa	16.5	53.7¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Amon-Ra St. Brown	40.5	53.5¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Elijah Higgins	0.5	48.3¢DraftKings	58.2¢DraftKings
Isaac TeSlaa	10.5	52.8¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Amon-Ra St. Brown	15.5	53.1¢DraftKings	53.5¢DraftKings
Elijah Higgins	0.5	24.9¢DraftKings	80.5¢DraftKings
Isaac TeSlaa	0.5	39.8¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Amon-Ra St. Brown	7.5	49.8¢DraftKings	56.3¢DraftKings
Elijah Higgins	1.5	42.7¢FanDuel	61.5¢BetMGM
Isaac TeSlaa	2.5	41¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jacoby Brissett	8.5	51.7¢DraftKings	53.1¢FanDuel
Jahmyr Gibbs	90.5	53.1¢FanDuel	52.4¢DraftKings
Jared Goff	0.5	53.1¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jahmyr Gibbs	19.5	54.3¢DraftKings	51.7¢DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love	11.5	53.5¢BetMGM	51.9¢DraftKings
Tyler Allgeier	7.5	51.2¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jahmyr Gibbs	132.5	53.5¢BetRivers	53.5¢BetRivers
Jeremiyah Love	61.5	52.4¢DraftKings	53.5¢BetMGM
Tyler Allgeier	39.5	53.5¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jahmyr Gibbs	42.5	53.5¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love	21.5	53.7¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Tyler Allgeier	13.5	51.5¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Chad Ryland	1.5	50.3¢DraftKings	56¢DraftKings
Jake Bates	1.5	51.7¢DraftKings	54.3¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Chad Ryland	6.5	56.1¢DraftKings	49.8¢DraftKings
Jake Bates	7.5	56.1¢DraftKings	50¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jacoby Brissett	36.5	53.5¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Jared Goff	36.5	53.7¢DraftKings	52.6¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jacoby Brissett	36.5	57.5¢BetMGM	50¢BetMGM
Jared Goff	34.5	53.9¢DraftKings	52.2¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jacoby Brissett	1.5	56.9¢BetRivers	43.5¢Fanatics
Jared Goff	2.5	37.7¢BetMGM	63.1¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jacoby Brissett	266.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Jared Goff	280.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jacoby Brissett	128.5	52.8¢DraftKings	53.5¢DraftKings
Jared Goff	145.5	52.8¢DraftKings	53.5¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jacoby Brissett	53.5	53.3¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Jared Goff	62.5	52.8¢DraftKings	53.7¢DraftKings

Source	DET -5	ARI +5
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	52.4¢best price	51.9¢best price
Fanatics	52.4¢	52.4¢

DET at ARI, NFL

How it went

Scoring

DETTeam statsARI

Our model

Lineup points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Agents that passed