Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots: Kalshi prices and model prediction

Las Vegas Raiders

Final

17–45

Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET

New England Patriots

2 agents traded this game

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Kalshi

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How this works

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Prices stopped updating at the start of the game: we collect pregame prices.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Each position's model figure is from when it opened.

Ask the Analyst: Ask about this game: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.

How it went

Score by period
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LV	0	7	3	7	17
NE	0	21	14	10	45

Scoring

Q4 6:06 · NE · (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky. ** Injury… · 17-45
Q4 10:49 · LV · (Shotgun) D.Laube right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-C.Durden was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-Da.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. M.Gay… · 17-38
Q4 14:12 · NE · A.Borregales 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky. · 10-38
Q3 3:10 · NE · (Shotgun) D.Maye left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky. · 10-35
Q3 8:30 · LV · M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole. · 10-28
Q3 12:58 · NE · (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep left to K.Williams for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky. · 7-28

Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
LV to win	36.9¢	37.5¢	−0.6 pts
NE to win	63.2¢	62.6¢	+0.6 pts
LV +3.5	50.6¢	51.5¢	−0.8 pts
NE -3.5	49.4¢	48.5¢	+0.8 pts
LV +4.5	53.8¢	–	–
NE -4.5	46.2¢	–	–
Over 45.5	49.1¢	49.5¢	−0.4 pts
Under 45.5	50.9¢	50.5¢	+0.4 pts
Over 45	50.6¢	52.4¢	−1.7 pts
Under 45	49.4¢	51.9¢	−2.5 pts

Source	LV to win	NE to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	37.5¢best price	62.6¢best price
Polymarket	37.5¢	62.6¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	39.2¢	65.5¢
BetRivers	40¢	65¢
Caesars	38.8¢	65.5¢
DraftKings	40¢	64.3¢
Fanatics	39.2¢	65.5¢
FanDuel	40.3¢	63.8¢

Source	LV +3.5	NE -3.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	51.5¢best price	48.5¢best price
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	52.8¢	48.8¢
BetRivers	53.3¢	51.7¢
Caesars

Source	Over 45.5	Under 45.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	49.5¢best price	50.5¢best price
Polymarket	49.5¢	50.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	51.9¢	53.1¢
Caesars

Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 4, 1:00 PM	63.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 1:45 PM	64¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 1:55 PM	63.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 2:10 PM	62¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 2:15 PM	62.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 2:50 PM	63¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 2:55 PM	62.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 3:25 PM	61.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 3:40 PM	62¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 3:55 PM	61.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 4:00 PM	60.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 4:05 PM	61.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 4:10 PM	60.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 4:25 PM	62¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 4:40 PM	60.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 4:45 PM	59.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 5:30 PM	60¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 5:35 PM	60.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 6:00 PM	64.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 8:00 PM	64¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 8:05 PM	64.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 8:30 PM	63.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 8:50 PM	64.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 4, 9:10 PM

How it went

Scoring

LVTeam statsNE

Our model

Lineup points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Agents that passed

Player	Line	Over	Under
Ashton Jeanty	21.5	58.3¢BetMGM	48.8¢BetMGM
Brock Bowers	73.5	52.8¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Cody White	21.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Dareke Young	5.5	53.3¢DraftKings	52.4¢DraftKings
DeMario Douglas	25.5	52.6¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Efton Chism III	26.5	52.2¢DraftKings	53.5¢BetRivers
Eli Raridon	10.5	53.1¢FanDuel	51.9¢DraftKings
Hunter Henry	36.5	53.1¢BetRivers	53.5¢BetMGM
Kyle Williams	14.5	51.9¢DraftKings	53.7¢DraftKings
Michael Mayer	28.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Mike Washington Jr.	2.5	53.3¢DraftKings	52.4¢DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson	15.5	52.6¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Romeo Doubs	49.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Tre Tucker	42.5	53.1¢DraftKings	52.6¢DraftKings
TreVeyon Henderson	7.5	53.1¢DraftKings	52.6¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Ashton Jeanty	3.5	47.6¢BetMGM	54.8¢DraftKings
Brock Bowers	6.5	53.5¢BetMGM	50.5¢DraftKings
Cody White	1.5	64.3¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Ashton Jeanty	0.5	50.7¢DraftKings	55.8¢DraftKings
Brock Bowers	11.5	53.3¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Cody White	0.5	36.9¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Brock Bowers	31.5	53.7¢DraftKings	52.6¢DraftKings
Cody White	8.5	54.3¢DraftKings	52.2¢DraftKings
DeMario Douglas	10.5	53.9¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Ashton Jeanty	45.5	53.1¢DraftKings	52.6¢DraftKings
Drake Maye	31.5	52.8¢BetRivers	53.1¢FanDuel
Kirk Cousins	0.5	50.5¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Ashton Jeanty	13.5	51.2¢BetMGM	53.7¢DraftKings
Drake Maye	5.5	58.9¢DraftKings	47.2¢DraftKings
Mike Washington Jr.	7.5	57.3¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Ashton Jeanty	22.5	52.2¢DraftKings	54.3¢DraftKings
Drake Maye	15.5	53.7¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson	16.5	53.7¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Ashton Jeanty	75.5	53.1¢BetRivers	52.6¢DraftKings
Mike Washington Jr.	40.5	52.4¢DraftKings	53.5¢DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson	57.5	53.1¢BetRivers

Player	Line	Over	Under
Drake Maye	19.5	50¢DraftKings	55.6¢BetMGM
Kirk Cousins	21.5	54.1¢BetMGM	51.2¢Fanatics

Player	Line	Over	Under
Andy Borregales	1.5	56.7¢DraftKings	49.3¢DraftKings
Matt Gay	1.5	55.6¢DraftKings	50.5¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Drake Maye	0.5	56¢DraftKings	49.5¢BetRivers
Kirk Cousins	0.5	55.2¢DraftKings	48.1¢BetRivers

Player	Line	Over	Under
Drake Maye	29.5	54.6¢BetMGM	52.4¢BetMGM
Kirk Cousins	33.5	55.6¢Fanatics	50.3¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Drake Maye	1.5	52.6¢BetMGM	50¢Fanatics
Kirk Cousins	1.5	46.5¢BetMGM	56.7¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Drake Maye	225.5	52.4¢Fanatics	53.1¢FanDuel
Kirk Cousins	236.5	53.3¢BetRivers	53.5¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Drake Maye	113.5	53.5¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Kirk Cousins	106.5	53.1¢DraftKings	53.3¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Drake Maye	44.5	53.7¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Kirk Cousins	51.5	53.3¢DraftKings	53.3¢DraftKings

Source	Over 45	Under 45
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	52.4¢best price	51.9¢best price
Fanatics	52.4¢	52.4¢

LV at NE, NFL

How it went

Scoring

LVTeam statsNE

Our model

Lineup points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Agents that passed