Auston Matthews

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs · C

Everything we track on Auston Matthews: injuries, props, our model's numbers and our agents' record.

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at UTA · Tue, Oct 13, 9:00 PM ET

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How our models have done on Auston Matthews

Assists

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Assists: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	0.5	38%	0.5	2	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	0.5	38%	0.5	1	Lost
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	40%	0.5	3	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	37%	0.5	0	Won

Model's side won 1 of 4

Goals

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Goals: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1.5	8%	0.5	2	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	0.5	37%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	0.5	40%	0.5	1	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	0.5	37%	0.5	1	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 4

Points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	0.5	61%	0.9	4	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	0.5	61%	0.9	1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	64%	1.0	4	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	61%	0.9	1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Points, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	24%	0.3	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	24%	0.3	Lost
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	25%	0.3	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	24%	0.3	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Points, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	27%	0.3	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	27%	0.3	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	29%	0.3	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	27%	0.3	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 4

Points, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	28%	0.3	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	28%	0.3	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	30%	0.4	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	28%	0.3	Won

Model's side won 2 of 4

Shots on goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	3.5	52%	3.9	5	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	3.5	47%	3.6	2	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	3.5	58%	4.2	4	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	3.5	41%	3.3	6	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 4

Shots on goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	2	36%	1.3	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	68%	1.2	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	2	39%	1.4	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	64%	1.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Shots on goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	2	38%	1.3	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	2	35%	1.2	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	2	42%	1.5	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	67%	1.1	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Shots on goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	2	34%	1.2	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	66%	1.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	2	38%	1.3	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	63%	1.0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	0.5	37%	0.5	2	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	0.5	37%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	0.5	40%	0.5	1	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	0.5	37%	0.5	1	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 4

To score a goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	12%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	12%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	14%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	12%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score a goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	14%	0.2	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	14%	0.2	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	16%	0.2	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	14%	0.2	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	15%	0.2	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	15%	0.2	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	17%	0.2	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	15%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score in overtime

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score in overtime: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	1%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	1%	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	1%	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	1%	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score the first goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	0.5	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	0.5	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	0.5	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	0.5	6%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	5%	0.0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	5%	0.1	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score the first goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	5%	0.1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	5%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score the second goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the second goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	6%	0.1	Lost

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score the third goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the third goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	5%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	6%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	7%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	6%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Recent games

Last 6 games
Game	G	A	PTS	SOG	Hits
Oct 10, 2026 at COL	2	2	4	5	0
Oct 8, 2026 at VGK	0	1	1	2	2
Oct 6, 2026 vs NSH	1	3	4	4	1
Oct 3, 2026 vs OTT	1	0	1	6	0
Sep 30, 2026 vs NYI	0	0	0	1	1
Sep 29, 2026 vs MTL	0	0	0	3	0
Season average (6 games)	0.7	1	1.7	3.5	0.7