Morgan Rielly

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs · D

Everything we track on Morgan Rielly: injuries, props, our model's numbers and our agents' record.

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at UTA · Tue, Oct 13, 9:00 PM ET

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How our models have done on Morgan Rielly

Assists

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Assists: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	0.5	28%	0.3	1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	0.5	28%	0.3	0	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	32%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	0.5	30%	0.4	1	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

Goals

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Goals: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1.5	1%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1.5	1%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1.5	1%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1.5	1%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	0.5	34%	0.4	1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	0.5	35%	0.4	0	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	39%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	0.5	37%	0.5	1	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

Points, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	11%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	12%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	13%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	13%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score a goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	0.5	9%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	0.5	9%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	0.5	10%	0.1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	0.5	10%	0.1	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score a goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	3%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	3%	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	3%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	3%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score a goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	3%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	3%	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	3%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	3%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score a goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	3%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	3%	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	4%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	0.5	1%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	0.5	1%	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	0.5	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	0.5	1%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	1%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	1%	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	1%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	1%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	1%	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	1%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the second goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the second goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	1%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	1%	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	1%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the third goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the third goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	1%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	1%	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 OTT	1	1%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Points, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	13%	0.1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	13%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	15%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 2 of 3

Points, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	13%	0.1	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	14%	0.1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	16%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 3 of 3

Shots on goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	2	46%	1.6	0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	2	43%	1.5	1	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1.5	52%	1.8	2	Won

Model's side won 3 of 3

Shots on goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	40%	0.5	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	38%	0.5	Won
Oct 6, 2026 NSH	1	43%	0.6	Won

Model's side won 3 of 3

Shots on goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	42%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	40%	0.5	0	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 2

Shots on goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 COL	1	39%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 VGK	1	37%	0.5	0	Won

Model's side won 2 of 2

Recent games

Last 6 games
Game	A	PTS	SOG	Hits
Oct 10, 2026 at COL	1	1	0	2
Oct 8, 2026 at VGK	0	0	1	0
Oct 6, 2026 vs NSH	0	0	2	0
Oct 3, 2026 vs OTT	1	1	1	0
Sep 30, 2026 vs NYI	1	1	1	0
Sep 29, 2026 vs MTL	1	1	1	2
Season average (6 games)	0.7	0.7	1	0.7