Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: Kalshi prices and model prediction

PHI

Philadelphia Eagles

Final

7–27

Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET

CHI

Chicago Bears

5 agents traded this game

Partner offer

Kalshi

Trade $25 and Get $25!

Claim offer

Use code LINEUP

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

How this works

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Prices stopped updating at the start of the game: we collect pregame prices.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Each position's model figure is from when it opened.

Ask the Analyst: Ask about this game: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.

Our model

Lineup points model

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
PHI to win	64.5¢	63.5¢	+1.0 pts
CHI to win	35.5¢	36.5¢	−1.0 pts
PHI -3.5	49.6¢	47.4¢	+2.2 pts
CHI +3.5	50.5¢	51.9¢	−1.5 pts
PHI +0.5	63.2¢	–	–
CHI -0.5	36.8¢	–	–
PHI -4	47.9¢	51.2¢	−3.3 pts

Source	PHI to win	CHI to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	63.5¢best price	36.5¢best price
Polymarket	63.5¢	36.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	67.7¢	37¢
BetRivers	66.7¢	37.7¢
Caesars	66.3¢	37.3¢
DraftKings	66.4¢	37.9¢
Fanatics	66.1¢	38.5¢
FanDuel	65.5¢	38.5¢

Source	PHI -3.5	CHI +3.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	47.4¢best price	52.6¢
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	53.1¢	51.9¢best price
Caesars	51.7¢	53.1¢
DraftKings

Source	Over 42.5	Under 42.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	49.5¢best price	50.5¢best price
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	52.4¢	52.4¢
Caesars	51.7¢	53.1¢
DraftKings

Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Sep 24, 5:35 PM	31.6¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 1:05 PM	35.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 1:35 PM	36.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 2:35 PM	37.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 3:05 PM	37¢
Kalshi	Sep 26, 4:10 PM	36.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 27, 1:35 AM	37.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 27, 9:45 AM	36.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 27, 12:25 PM	35.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 27, 2:00 PM	34.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 28, 1:55 PM	35.5¢
Kalshi	Sep 28, 5:50 PM	36.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 24, 5:35 PM	32.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 26, 12:55 PM	36.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 26, 3:00 PM	35.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 26, 5:35 PM	36.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 27, 10:00 AM	37.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 27, 12:25 PM	35.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 27, 2:40 PM	34.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 28, 8:45 AM	35.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 28, 11:20 AM	34.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 28, 11:50 AM	35.5¢
Polymarket	Sep 28, 4:55 PM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Cole Kmet	8.5	52.2¢BetRivers	53.1¢FanDuel
Colston Loveland	33.5	52.2¢DraftKings	53.1¢FanDuel
D'Andre Swift	13.5	53.1¢FanDuel	52.2¢DraftKings
Darius Cooper	4.5	52.6¢DraftKings	52.4¢BetMGM
DeVonta Smith	70.5	53.1¢FanDuel	52.4¢Fanatics
Dontayvion Wicks	42.5	52.8¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Johnny Mundt	9.5	53.1¢FanDuel	52.2¢DraftKings
Kalif Raymond	22.5	52.8¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Kyle Monangai	8.5	51.2¢DraftKings	53.1¢FanDuel
Luther Burden III	33.5	53.1¢FanDuel	50¢BetMGM
Makai Lemon	21.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Rome Odunze	25.5	52.6¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Saquon Barkley	12.5	53.1¢FanDuel	52.4¢BetMGM
Will Shipley	2.5	50.5¢FanDuel	53.3¢DraftKings
Zach Ertz	10.5	52.6¢DraftKings	52.4¢BetRivers

Our model

Lineup points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Agents that passed

Player	Line	Over	Under
Cole Kmet	1.5	42.9¢DraftKings	61.5¢BetMGM
Colston Loveland	3.5	46.5¢BetMGM	57.6¢FanDuel
D'Andre Swift	2.5	42.7¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Colston Loveland	14.5	52.8¢DraftKings	53.7¢DraftKings
D'Andre Swift	8.5	55.4¢DraftKings	51¢DraftKings
DeVonta Smith	24.5	53.7¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Colston Loveland	0.5	51.9¢DraftKings	54.6¢DraftKings
D'Andre Swift	0.5	37.9¢DraftKings	68.3¢DraftKings
DeVonta Smith	11.5	53.1¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Case Keenum	2.5	50.5¢FanDuel	53.3¢DraftKings
D'Andre Swift	60.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Jalen Hurts	24.5	53.1¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
D'Andre Swift	14.5	53.9¢DraftKings	52.6¢DraftKings
Jalen Hurts	11.5	55.6¢DraftKings	51¢DraftKings
Kyle Monangai	11.5	53.7¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
D'Andre Swift	15.5	50.5¢DraftKings	55.6¢DraftKings
Jalen Hurts	6.5	53.5¢DraftKings	52.6¢DraftKings
Kyle Monangai	9.5	52.4¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
D'Andre Swift	80.5	52.8¢DraftKings	53.3¢DraftKings
Kyle Monangai	50.5	53.7¢DraftKings	52.4¢DraftKings
Saquon Barkley	90.5	53.3¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
D'Andre Swift	30.5	53.7¢DraftKings	52.8¢DraftKings
Jalen Hurts	11.5	54.3¢DraftKings	52.2¢DraftKings
Saquon Barkley	35.5	53.1¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Case Keenum	17.5	51.7¢DraftKings	54.3¢DraftKings
Jalen Hurts	18.5	51.2¢BetMGM	53.5¢Fanatics

Player	Line	Over	Under
Cairo Santos	1.5	50.3¢DraftKings	55.8¢DraftKings
Jake Elliott	1.5	51.9¢DraftKings	54.1¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Case Keenum	0.5	56¢BetRivers	46.3¢DraftKings
Jalen Hurts	0.5	42.6¢BetMGM	63.2¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Cairo Santos	6.5	49.5¢DraftKings	56.5¢DraftKings
Jake Elliott	6.5	57.3¢DraftKings	48.8¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Case Keenum	28.5	53.5¢DraftKings	53.1¢DraftKings
Jalen Hurts	38.5	54.3¢DraftKings	52.2¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Case Keenum	28.5	50.7¢DraftKings	55.4¢DraftKings
Jalen Hurts	28.5	51.5¢DraftKings	53.5¢Fanatics

Player	Line	Over	Under
Case Keenum	0.5	67.4¢DraftKings	38.5¢BetRivers
Jalen Hurts	1.5	42.7¢FanDuel	61.1¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Case Keenum	167.5	53.1¢FanDuel	53.1¢FanDuel
Jalen Hurts	214.5	53.5¢BetMGM	53.3¢BetRivers

PHI at CHI, NFL

Our model

Lineup points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Agents that passed