Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens: Kalshi prices and model prediction

BUF

Buffalo Sabres

Final

3–4

Oct 13, 6:30 PM ET

MTL

Montréal Canadiens

No agent traded this game.

Partner offer

Kalshi

Trade $25 and Get $55!

Claim offer

Use code LINEUPPICKS

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

How this works

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Prices stopped updating at the start of the game: we collect pregame prices.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Our model

Lineup goals model

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup goals model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
BUF to win	41.5¢	40.5¢	+1.0 pts
MTL to win	58.5¢	58.5¢	0.0 pts
BUF +1.5	61.6¢	63.5¢	−1.9 pts
MTL -1.5	38.4¢	36.5¢	+1.9 pts
Over 6.5	49¢	48.5¢	+0.5 pts
Under 6.5	51¢	50.5¢	+0.5 pts

Prices by source

Moneyline prices by source
Source	BUF to win	MTL to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	40.5¢best price	59.5¢
Polymarket	41.5¢	58.5¢best price
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	44.4¢	60.8¢
BetRivers	42.6¢	61.8¢
Caesars	42.9¢	61.4¢
DraftKings	43.5¢	60.8¢
Fanatics	43.5¢	60.8¢
FanDuel	43.5¢	60.9¢

Spread prices by source
Source	BUF +1.5	MTL -1.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	63.5¢best price	36.5¢best price
Polymarket	63.5¢	36.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	65.5¢	39.4¢
BetRivers

Total 6.5 prices by source
Source	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	49.5¢	50.5¢best price
Polymarket	48.5¢best price	51.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	51.2¢	53.5¢
BetRivers

Price history for MTL to win by source, in cents
Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 6, 9:09 PM	50¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 9:19 PM	49¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 1:04 AM	51.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 1:09 AM	55.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 1:19 AM	56¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 1:34 AM	56.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 1:39 AM	56¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 1:44 AM	55¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 2:04 AM	55.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:04 AM	55¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:09 AM	55.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:29 AM	55¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:39 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:44 AM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:49 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 4:19 AM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 4:44 AM	55¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 4:54 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 5:09 AM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 5:14 AM	56¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 5:39 AM	55¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 5:49 AM	55.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 5:54 AM	55¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 5:59 AM	55.6¢

Assists: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Alex Newhook	0.5	30.3¢DraftKings	76.2¢DraftKings
Alexandre Carrier	0.5	23.8¢DraftKings	82.6¢DraftKings
Alexandre Texier	0.5	25¢DraftKings	81¢DraftKings
Chris Kreider	0.5	35.1¢BetMGM	71¢DraftKings
Cole Caufield	0.5	45.5¢BetMGM	60¢DraftKings
Jack Quinn	0.5	38.5¢DraftKings	68.3¢DraftKings
Jiri Kulich	0.5	22.2¢DraftKings	84¢DraftKings
Josh Anderson	0.5	24.4¢DraftKings	81.8¢DraftKings
Josh Doan	0.5	28.6¢DraftKings	73.3¢BetMGM
Josh Norris	0.5	27¢DraftKings	76.5¢BetMGM
Juraj Slafkovský	0.5	47.6¢BetMGM	60¢BetMGM
Konsta Helenius	0.5	21.7¢DraftKings	84¢DraftKings
Lane Hutson	0.5	60.8¢BetMGM	44.4¢DraftKings
Mattias Samuelsson	0.5	27.4¢DraftKings	79.2¢DraftKings
Nick Suzuki	0.5	57.5¢BetMGM	44.4¢DraftKings
Noah Dobson	0.5	34.5¢DraftKings	68.8¢BetMGM
Noah Ostlund	0.5	30.3¢DraftKings	73.3¢BetMGM
Olen Zellweger	0.5	22.7¢DraftKings	83.3¢DraftKings
Owen Power	0.5	43.5¢DraftKings	63.6¢DraftKings
Peyton Krebs	0.5	30.3¢DraftKings	76.2¢DraftKings
Phillip Danault	0.5	22.7¢DraftKings	83.3¢DraftKings
Ryan McLeod	0.5	29¢DraftKings	71.4¢BetMGM
Tage Thompson	0.5	40.8¢BetMGM	63¢DraftKings
Zach Benson	0.5	33.9¢DraftKings	69.2¢BetMGM
Zachary Bolduc	0.5	28.2¢DraftKings	78.3¢DraftKings

Player

Line

Over

Under

Alex Newhook

0.5

30.3¢DraftKings

76.2¢DraftKings

Alexandre Carrier

0.5

23.8¢DraftKings

82.6¢DraftKings