John Carlson

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning · D

Everything we track on John Carlson: injuries, props, our model's numbers and our agents' record.

Next game

at NYR · Tue, Oct 13, 7:15 PM ET

Open the game page

How our models have done on John Carlson

Assists

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Assists: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	0.5	37%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	40%	0.5	0	Won
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	0.5	43%	0.6	1	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	0.5	42%	0.5	1	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

Goals

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Goals: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1.5	1%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1.5	1%	0.1	2	Lost
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	1.5	1%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1.5	1%	0.1	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

Points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	0.5	44%	0.6	0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	47%	0.6	2	Lost
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	0.5	51%	0.7	1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	0.5	49%	0.7	1	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 4

Shots on goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1.5	55%	1.9	1	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1.5	56%	1.9	9	Won
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	2.5	37%	2.2	1	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	2.5	37%	2.2	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	0.5	12%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	0.5	11%	0.1	2	Lost
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	0.5	13%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	0.5	12%	0.1	0	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	4%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	3%	Lost
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	1	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	4%	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	4%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	4%	Lost
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	1	4%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	4%	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score a goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score a goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	4%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	4%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	1	5%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	5%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score in overtime

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score in overtime: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	1%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	1%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	1	1%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	1%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	0.5	2%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	0.5	2%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	0.5	2%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	0.5	2%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	2%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	2%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	1	2%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	2%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the first goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the first goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	2%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	2%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	1	2%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	2%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

To score the second goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the second goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	2%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	2%	Lost
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	1	2%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	2%	Won

Model's side won 3 of 4

To score the third goal

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

To score the third goal: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	2%	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	2%	Won
Oct 5, 2026 PHI	1	2%	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	2%	Won

Model's side won 4 of 4

Points, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	15%	0.2	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	17%	0.2	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	18%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 2 of 3

Points, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	18%	0.2	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	19%	0.2	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	21%	0.2	Won

Model's side won 2 of 3

Points, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Points, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	18%	0.2	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	20%	0.2	Won
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	21%	0.2	Lost

Model's side won 2 of 3

Shots on goal, 1st period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 1st period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	45%	0.6	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	46%	0.6	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	50%	0.7	Won

Model's side won 2 of 3

Shots on goal, 2nd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 2nd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	47%	0.6	Lost
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	48%	0.7	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	52%	0.8	Lost

Model's side won 0 of 3

Shots on goal, 3rd period

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Shots on goal, 3rd period: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	1	44%	0.6	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	1	45%	0.6	Lost
Oct 3, 2026 WSH	1	49%	0.7	Won

Model's side won 2 of 3

Power-play points

Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

Power-play points: our probability for the over, projected and actual stat
Date	Line	Our chance of over	Projected	Actual	Model's side
Oct 10, 2026 NYI	0.5	11%	0.1	0	Won
Oct 8, 2026 MIN	0.5	11%	0.1	0	Lost

Model's side won 1 of 2

Recent games

Last 5 games
Game	G	A	PTS	SOG	Hits
Oct 10, 2026 at NYI	0	0	0	1	2
Oct 8, 2026 vs MIN	2	0	2	9	2
Oct 5, 2026 vs PHI	0	1	1	1	0
Oct 3, 2026 vs WSH	0	1	1	0	0
Oct 1, 2026 at NYR	0	0	0	4	1
Season average (5 games)	0.4	0.4	0.8	3	1