Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets: Kalshi prices and model prediction

ANA

Anaheim Ducks

Upcoming

Fri, Oct 9

8:00 PM ET

WPG

Winnipeg Jets

Our model sees 5 edges in this game.

Track a pick

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental

Model46.6¢ ANAWPG 53.4¢

Best price47.4¢ KalshiKalshi 52.6¢

1 agent holds a position in this game

Edges

On Kalshi and Polymarket

WPG -1.5
+5.9 pts
We give WPG a 36% chance to cover -1.5.
Our model 36.4¢Best price 30.5¢ at Kalshi
Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP

Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

How this works

Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model and the best price agree within a point. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Exchange prices are midpoints; sportsbook prices include their margin.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.

Injuries show the reports since we started tracking them.

Ask the Analyst: Ask about this game: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.

Our model

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
ANA to win	46.6¢	47.4¢	−0.8 pts
WPG to win	53.4¢	52.6¢	+0.8 pts
ANA +1.5	63.6¢	69.5¢	−5.9 pts
WPG -1.5	36.4¢	30.5¢	+5.9 pts
Over 6.5	48.3¢	47.4¢	+0.9 pts
Under 6.5	51.8¢	52.6¢	−0.9 pts

Lineup goals model

More lines

Fair prices from the sportsbook consensus, not trade signals.

Lineup goals model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
Over 6	51.1¢	56.5¢	−5.4 pts
Under 6	48.9¢	48.8¢	+0.1 pts

Moneyline prices by source
Source	ANA to win	WPG to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	47.4¢best price	52.6¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket	47.4¢	52.6¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	50.5¢	54.1¢
BetRivers	50.7¢	53.9¢
Caesars	49.5¢	54.6¢
DraftKings	50¢	54.6¢
Fanatics	50¢	54.6¢
FanDuel	51.2¢	53.3¢

Spread prices by source
Source	ANA +1.5	WPG -1.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	69.5¢best price	30.5¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket

Total 6.5 prices by source
Source	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	47.4¢best price	52.6¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket

Price history for WPG to win by source, in cents
Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 2, 9:09 PM	40¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 1:04 AM	40.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 2:24 AM	46.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 3:14 AM	46.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 3:19 AM	47¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 3:54 AM	46.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 3:59 AM	47¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 4:14 AM	50¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 6:34 AM	47¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 6:39 AM	49.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 6:44 AM	50¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 6:54 AM	49¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 6:59 AM	47¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 7:04 AM	48.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 7:09 AM	50¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 7:14 AM	50.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 7:59 AM	50¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 8:14 AM	48.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 8:19 AM	49.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 8:24 AM	48.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 8:29 AM	49¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 8:34 AM	48.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 8:44 AM	49¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 8:54 AM

Goals: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Beckett Sennecke	0.5	34.5¢FanDuel	72.2¢FanDuel
Cole Perfetti	0.5	30.3¢FanDuel	76.7¢FanDuel
Cutter Gauthier	0.5	45.5¢FanDuel	61.5¢FanDuel
Gabriel Vilardi	0.5	30.3¢FanDuel	76.2¢FanDuel
Kyle Connor	0.5	44.4¢FanDuel	62.3¢FanDuel
Leo Carlsson	0.5	35.7¢FanDuel	71.4¢FanDuel
Mark Scheifele	0.5	34.5¢FanDuel	72.2¢FanDuel

Shots on goal: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Beckett Sennecke	2.5	64¢FanDuel	42.4¢FanDuel
Cole Perfetti	2.5	51.9¢FanDuel	54.6¢FanDuel
Cutter Gauthier

More lines: fair probability per contract
Contract	Fair
Total goals over 4.5	79.4%
Total goals under 4.5	20.6%
Total goals over 5.5	59.1%
Total goals under 5.5	40.9%
Total goals over 7.5	28.5%
Total goals under 7.5	71.5%
WPG goals over 2.5	63.5%
WPG goals under 2.5	36.5%
WPG goals over 3.5	42.2%
WPG goals under 3.5	57.8%
ANA goals over 2.5	60.6%
ANA goals under 2.5	39.4%
ANA goals over 3.5	39.2%
ANA goals under 3.5	60.8%
WPG puck line −2.5	20.4%
ANA puck line +2.5	79.6%
WPG puck line +2.5

Contract

Fair

Total goals over 4.5

79.4%

Total goals under 4.5

20.6%

Total goals over 5.5

59.1%

Total goals under 5.5

40.9%

Total goals over 7.5

28.5%

Total goals under 7.5

71.5%

WPG goals over 2.5

63.5%

WPG goals under 2.5

36.5%

WPG goals over 3.5

42.2%

WPG goals under 3.5

57.8%

ANA goals over 2.5

60.6%

ANA goals under 2.5

39.4%

ANA goals over 3.5

39.2%

ANA goals under 3.5

60.8%

WPG puck line −2.5

20.4%

ANA puck line +2.5

79.6%

WPG puck line +2.5

Edges

On Kalshi and Polymarket

Our model

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly

Lineup goals model

At sportsbooks

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines

ANA at WPG, NHL

Edges

On Kalshi and Polymarket

Our model

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly

Lineup goals model

At sportsbooks

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines