Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers: Kalshi prices and model prediction

SEA

Seattle Kraken

Final

3–2

Oct 13, 7:00 PM ET

PHI

Philadelphia Flyers

No agent traded this game.

Partner offer

Kalshi

Trade $25 and Get $55!

Claim offer

Use code LINEUPPICKS

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

How this works

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Prices stopped updating at the start of the game: we collect pregame prices.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Our model

Lineup goals model

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup goals model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
SEA to win	58.3¢	49.5¢	+8.8 pts
PHI to win	41.7¢	50.5¢	−8.8 pts
SEA +1.5	74.4¢	70.5¢	+3.9 pts
PHI -1.5	25.6¢	29.5¢	−3.9 pts
SEA -1.5	39.5¢	32.3¢	+7.3 pts
PHI +1.5	60.5¢	74¢	−13.5 pts
Over 5.5	51.8¢	53.5¢	−1.7 pts

Under 5.5	48.2¢	46.5¢	+1.7 pts

Over 6	49¢	50.5¢	−1.5 pts

Under 6	51¢	54.1¢	−3.1 pts

Moneyline prices by source
Source	SEA to win	PHI to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	49.5¢best price	50.5¢best price
Polymarket	49.5¢	50.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	52.4¢	52.4¢
BetRivers	51.5¢	52.8¢
Caesars	51.7¢	52.4¢
DraftKings	51.9¢	52.8¢
Fanatics	51.2¢	53.5¢
FanDuel	51¢	53.5¢

Spread prices by source
Source	SEA +1.5	PHI -1.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	70.5¢best price	29.5¢best price
Polymarket	70.5¢	29.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	74.1¢	30.8¢
DraftKings

Total 5.5 prices by source
Source	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	53.5¢best price	46.5¢best price
Polymarket	53.5¢	46.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	58.2¢	47.2¢
DraftKings

Price history for PHI to win by source, in cents
Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 6, 9:09 PM	50¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 9:19 PM	47.4¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 10:39 PM	50¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 12:14 AM	50.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 12:19 AM	51¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 12:34 AM	50.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 12:39 AM	51¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 1:04 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 1:29 AM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 1:54 AM	55¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 2:09 AM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:24 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:29 AM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:34 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:39 AM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 3:59 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 4:04 AM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 4:14 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 4:24 AM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 4:29 AM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 4:59 AM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 5:24 AM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 5:49 AM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 7, 6:14 AM

Points: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Adam Larsson	0.5	25¢DraftKings	81.8¢DraftKings
Berkly Catton	0.5	40¢DraftKings	67.2¢DraftKings
Bobby McMann	0.5	46.5¢BetMGM	58.3¢DraftKings
Brandon Montour	0.5	42.6¢DraftKings	58.3¢BetMGM
Chandler Stephenson	0.5	47.6¢BetMGM	58.3¢DraftKings
Christian Dvorak	0.5	39.2¢DraftKings	62.3¢BetMGM
David Jiricek	0.5	40.8¢DraftKings	66.7¢DraftKings
Denver Barkey	0.5	42.6¢DraftKings	64.9¢DraftKings
Jamie Drysdale	0.5	42.6¢DraftKings	61.5¢BetMGM
Jared McCann	0.5	53.5¢BetMGM	51.2¢DraftKings
Jordan Eberle	0.5	48.8¢DraftKings	54.6¢BetMGM
Kaapo Kakko	0.5	37.7¢DraftKings	66.7¢BetMGM
Mackie Samoskevich	0.5	41.7¢BetMGM	62.3¢DraftKings
Matty Beniers	0.5	46.5¢BetMGM	59.2¢DraftKings
Matvei Michkov	0.5	48.8¢DraftKings	55.6¢BetMGM
Noah Cates	0.5	38.5¢DraftKings	68.8¢DraftKings
Noel Acciari	0.5	27¢DraftKings	79.2¢DraftKings
Owen Tippett	0.5	45.5¢DraftKings	58.3¢BetMGM
Porter Martone	0.5	50¢BetMGM	53.5¢DraftKings
Ryker Evans	0.5	26¢DraftKings	80¢DraftKings
Sean Couturier	0.5	37¢DraftKings	69.7¢DraftKings
Shane Wright	0.5	40¢DraftKings	67.2¢DraftKings
Travis Sanheim	0.5	37¢DraftKings	70.2¢DraftKings
Trevor Zegras	0.5	54.6¢DraftKings	50¢BetMGM
Tyson Foerster	0.5	50¢DraftKings	56.5¢BetMGM
Vince Dunn	0.5	47.6¢DraftKings	58.3¢BetMGM

Player

Line

Over

Under

Adam Larsson

0.5

25¢DraftKings

81.8¢DraftKings

Berkly Catton

0.5

40¢DraftKings

67.2¢DraftKings