Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning: Kalshi prices and model prediction

VAN

Vancouver Canucks

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 17

4:00 PM ET

TBL

Tampa Bay Lightning

Our model sees 19 edges in this game.

Track a pick

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental

Model23.6¢ VANTBL 76.4¢

Best price22.2¢ BetRiversKalshi 77.5¢

Track who winsVAN 22.2¢TBL 77.5¢

Partner offer

Kalshi

Trade $25 and Get $25!

Claim offer

Use code LINEUP

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Edges

At sportsbooks

Sportsbook prices

Brandon Hagel under 0.5 power-play points
+14.5 pts
We expect about 0.2 power-play points; the line is 0.5.
Our model 83.7¢Best price 69.2¢ at BetMGM
Lineup NHL player modelExperimental
Nikita Kucherov under 0.5 power-play points
+13.6 pts
We expect about 0.3 power-play points; the line is 0.5.
Our model 72.8¢Best price 59.2¢ at BetMGM
Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

How this works

The model gives VAN 1.3 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Exchange prices are midpoints; sportsbook prices include their margin.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Injuries show the reports since we started tracking them.

Ask the Analyst: Ask about this game: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.

Our model

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
VAN to win	23.6¢	22.2¢	+1.3 pts
TBL to win	76.4¢	77.5¢	−1.0 pts
VAN +2.5	56.5¢	53.5¢	+3.0 pts
TBL -2.5	43.5¢	45.5¢	−1.9 pts
VAN +1.5	45.1¢	42¢	+3.1 pts
TBL -1.5	54.9¢	61.5¢	−6.6 pts
Over 6.5	51.1¢

Source	VAN to win	TBL to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	22.5¢	77.5¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket	22.5¢	77.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	23.8¢	81¢
BetRivers	22.2¢best price	82¢
Caesars	24.7¢	80¢
DraftKings	24.4¢	79.8¢
Fanatics	23.5¢	81¢
FanDuel	24.4¢	80¢

Source	VAN +2.5	TBL -2.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	53.5¢best price	46.5¢
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket

Source	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	49.5¢best price	50.5¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket

Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 10, 6:14 PM	68.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 6:19 PM	69¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 6:49 PM	68.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 6:59 PM	69¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 7:39 PM	70¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 7:59 PM	70.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 8:14 PM	72.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 8:19 PM	71¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 8:24 PM	74.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:19 PM	73.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:19 PM	74¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 12:34 AM	73¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 12:44 AM	74¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 1:04 AM	74.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 4:19 AM	75.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 4:39 AM	74.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 4:49 AM	75¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 5:09 AM	74¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 9:34 AM	71¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 9:44 AM	72.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 10:14 AM	74¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 10:19 AM	71.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 10:39 AM	72.5¢
Kalshi

Player	Line	Over	Under
Anthony Cirelli	0.5	52.4¢DraftKings	53.5¢BetMGM
Brandon Hagel	1.5	37¢BetMGM	69.7¢DraftKings
Brayden Point	0.5	68.3¢DraftKings	35.7¢BetMGM
Brock Boeser	0.5	46.5¢DraftKings	60¢BetMGM
Filip Chytil	0.5	37.7¢BetMGM	69.2¢BetMGM
Filip Hronek	0.5	47.6¢BetMGM	58.3¢DraftKings
Gage Goncalves	0.5	46.5¢BetMGM	59.2¢DraftKings
J.J. Moser	0.5	40¢DraftKings	65.5¢BetMGM
Jake DeBrusk	0.5	41.7¢DraftKings	61.5¢BetMGM
Jake Guentzel	1.5	34.7¢BetMGM	69.2¢DraftKings
John Carlson	0.5	64.9¢BetMGM	40.8¢DraftKings
Jonathan Lekkerimäki	0.5	36.4¢DraftKings	70.6¢DraftKings
Marco Rossi	0.5	35.7¢DraftKings	64.9¢BetMGM
Nikita Kucherov	1.5	51.2¢BetMGM	55.6¢BetMGM
Zeev Buium	0.5	29¢DraftKings	73.3¢BetMGM

Edges

At sportsbooks

Our model

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines

Player	Line	Over	Under
Anthony Cirelli	0.5	33.3¢DraftKings	71.4¢BetMGM
Brandon Hagel	0.5	50¢DraftKings	56.5¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Anthony Cirelli	1.5	60¢BetMGM	45.5¢DraftKings
Brandon Hagel	3.5	45.1¢FanDuel	60¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Anthony Cirelli	0.5	29.4¢FanDuel	77.3¢FanDuel
Brandon Hagel	0.5	43.5¢FanDuel	63.6¢FanDuel

Contract	Fair
Total goals over 4.5	80.1%
Total goals under 4.5	19.9%
Total goals over 5.5	61.1%
Total goals under 5.5	38.9%
Total goals over 7.5	30.3%
Total goals under 7.5	69.7%
TBL goals over 2.5	80.3%
TBL goals under 2.5	19.7%
TBL goals over 3.5	62.3%
TBL goals under 3.5	37.7%
VAN goals over 2.5	39.2%
VAN goals under 2.5	60.8%
VAN goals over 3.5	20.3%
VAN goals under 3.5	79.7%
TBL puck line −2.5	45.9%
VAN puck line +2.5	54.1%
TBL puck line +2.5	95.9%
VAN puck line −2.5	4.1%
Tied after regulation	16.9%

Source	VAN +1.5	TBL -1.5
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	42¢best price	63.6¢
DraftKings	42.4¢	61.8¢
FanDuel	43.5¢	61.5¢best price

VAN at TBL, NHL

Edges

At sportsbooks

Our model

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines