Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning: Kalshi prices and model prediction

MIN

Minnesota Wild

Upcoming

Thu, Oct 8

7:00 PM ET

TBL

Tampa Bay Lightning

Our model sees 19 edges in this game.

Track a pick

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup goals modelExperimental

Model40.5¢ MINTBL 59.5¢

Best price42.6¢ PolymarketKalshi 56.5¢

2 agents hold positions in this game

Edges

At sportsbooks

Sportsbook prices

Charle-Edouard D'Astous under 1.5 shots on goal
+14.5 pts
We expect about 1 shots on goal; the line is 1.5.
Our model 74.5¢Best price 60¢ at DraftKings
Lineup NHL player modelExperimental
Danila Yurov under 1.5 shots on goal
+13.8 pts
We expect about 1 shots on goal; the line is 1.5.
Our model 75.4¢Best price 61.5¢ at DraftKings
Lineup NHL player modelExperimental
John Carlson under 0.5 power-play points
+12.8 pts
We expect about 0.1 power-play points; the line is 0.5.

How this works

The model gives TBL 3.0 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Exchange prices are midpoints; sportsbook prices include their margin.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.

Injuries show the reports since we started tracking them.

Ask the Analyst: Ask about this game: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.

Our model

Lineup goals model

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup goals model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
MIN to win	40.5¢	42.6¢	−2.1 pts
TBL to win	59.5¢	56.5¢	+3.0 pts
MIN +1.5	61¢	64.5¢	−3.6 pts
TBL -1.5	39¢	35.5¢	+3.6 pts
Over 6.5	47.9¢	45.5¢	+2.5 pts
Under 6.5	52.1¢	54.6¢	−2.5 pts
Over 6	50.7¢	54.6¢	−3.8 pts

Under 6	49.3¢	50¢	−0.7 pts

Moneyline prices by source
Source	MIN to win	TBL to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	43.5¢	56.5¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket	42.6¢best price	57.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	45.5¢	59.2¢
BetRivers	43.5¢	60.8¢
Caesars	45.3¢	58.9¢
DraftKings	45.5¢	58.7¢
Fanatics	45.5¢	59.2¢
FanDuel	45.9¢	58.7¢

Spread prices by source
Source	MIN +1.5	TBL -1.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	64.5¢best price	35.5¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket

Total 6.5 prices by source
Source	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	45.5¢best price	54.6¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket

Price history for TBL to win by source, in cents
Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 1, 9:09 PM	46.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 1, 11:54 PM	46.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 1, 11:59 PM	47¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 1:04 AM	47.4¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 1:14 AM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 2:34 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 2:49 AM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 2:54 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 3:09 AM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 3:14 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 3:24 AM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 6:49 AM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 9:14 AM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 10:09 AM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 10:14 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 5:04 PM	54.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 2, 10:29 PM	55¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 12:49 AM	51¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 1:04 AM	51.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 1:14 AM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 1:19 AM	51¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 1:54 AM	55¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 2:34 AM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 3, 2:49 AM

Points: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Anthony Cirelli	0.5	43.5¢BetMGM	59.2¢DraftKings
Blake Coleman	0.5	45.5¢DraftKings	60¢BetMGM
Bobby Brink	0.5	38.5¢DraftKings	68.3¢DraftKings
Brandon Hagel	0.5	61.5¢DraftKings	44.4¢BetMGM
Brayden Point	0.5	62.3¢DraftKings	42.6¢BetMGM
Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0.5	44.4¢DraftKings	63¢DraftKings
Danila Yurov	0.5	37¢DraftKings	70.2¢DraftKings
Erik Cernak	0.5	23.3¢DraftKings	82.6¢DraftKings
Gage Goncalves	0.5	38.5¢BetMGM	63.6¢DraftKings
Ilya Mikheyev	0.5	37.7¢DraftKings	69.2¢DraftKings
J.J. Moser	0.5	29.4¢DraftKings	76.7¢DraftKings
Jake Guentzel	0.5	67.2¢DraftKings	38.5¢BetMGM
Jared Spurgeon	0.5	36.4¢DraftKings	71¢DraftKings
Joel Eriksson Ek	0.5	52.4¢DraftKings	53.5¢BetMGM
John Carlson	0.5	54.6¢BetMGM	52.4¢BetMGM
Jonas Brodin	0.5	18.2¢DraftKings	86.7¢DraftKings
Kirill Kaprizov	0.5	65.5¢DraftKings	35.7¢BetMGM
Matt Boldy	0.5	63.6¢BetMGM	40.8¢DraftKings
Maxim Shabanov	0.5	46.5¢DraftKings	60.8¢DraftKings
Nikita Kucherov	1.5	46.5¢BetMGM	59.2¢DraftKings
Pontus Holmberg	0.5	37.7¢DraftKings	69.2¢DraftKings
Quinn Hughes	0.5	61.5¢DraftKings	43.5¢BetMGM
Ryan Hartman	0.5	39.2¢DraftKings	65.5¢BetMGM
Ryan McDonagh	0.5	23.3¢DraftKings	82.6¢DraftKings
Zemgus Girgensons	0.5	21.7¢DraftKings	84¢DraftKings

Player

Line

Over

Under

Anthony Cirelli

0.5

43.5¢BetMGM

59.2¢DraftKings

Blake Coleman

0.5

45.5¢DraftKings

60¢BetMGM

Bobby Brink

0.5

38.5¢DraftKings

68.3¢DraftKings

Brandon Hagel

0.5

61.5¢DraftKings

44.4¢BetMGM

Brayden Point

0.5

62.3¢DraftKings

42.6¢BetMGM

Charle-Edouard D'Astous

0.5

44.4¢DraftKings

63¢DraftKings

Danila Yurov

0.5

37¢DraftKings

70.2¢DraftKings

Erik Cernak

0.5

23.3¢DraftKings

82.6¢DraftKings

Gage Goncalves

0.5

38.5¢BetMGM

63.6¢DraftKings

Ilya Mikheyev

0.5

37.7¢DraftKings

69.2¢DraftKings

J.J. Moser

0.5

29.4¢DraftKings

76.7¢DraftKings

Jake Guentzel

0.5

67.2¢DraftKings

38.5¢BetMGM

Jared Spurgeon

0.5

36.4¢DraftKings

71¢DraftKings

Joel Eriksson Ek

0.5

52.4¢DraftKings

53.5¢BetMGM

John Carlson

0.5

54.6¢BetMGM

52.4¢BetMGM

Jonas Brodin

0.5

18.2¢DraftKings

86.7¢DraftKings

Kirill Kaprizov

0.5

65.5¢DraftKings

35.7¢BetMGM

Matt Boldy

0.5

63.6¢BetMGM

40.8¢DraftKings

Maxim Shabanov

0.5

46.5¢DraftKings

60.8¢DraftKings

Nikita Kucherov

1.5

46.5¢BetMGM

59.2¢DraftKings

Pontus Holmberg

0.5

37.7¢DraftKings

69.2¢DraftKings

Quinn Hughes

0.5

61.5¢DraftKings

43.5¢BetMGM

Ryan Hartman

0.5

39.2¢DraftKings

65.5¢BetMGM

Ryan McDonagh

0.5

23.3¢DraftKings

82.6¢DraftKings

Zemgus Girgensons

0.5

21.7¢DraftKings

84¢DraftKings

Assists: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Anthony Cirelli	0.5	30.3¢BetMGM	73¢DraftKings
Blake Coleman	0.5	29¢DraftKings	77.3¢DraftKings
Bobby Brink	0.5

Player

Line

Over

Under

Anthony Cirelli

0.5

30.3¢BetMGM

73¢DraftKings

Blake Coleman

0.5

29¢DraftKings

77.3¢DraftKings

Bobby Brink

0.5

Shots on goal: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Anthony Cirelli	1.5	52.6¢BetMGM	50¢DraftKings
Blake Coleman	1.5	61.5¢FanDuel	42.6¢BetMGM
Brandon Hagel	2.5

Player

Line

Over

Under

Anthony Cirelli

1.5

52.6¢BetMGM

50¢DraftKings

Blake Coleman

1.5

61.5¢FanDuel

42.6¢BetMGM

Brandon Hagel

2.5

Goals: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Anthony Cirelli	0.5	23.8¢FanDuel	83.1¢FanDuel
Blake Coleman	0.5	23.8¢FanDuel	83.1¢FanDuel
Brandon Hagel	0.5

Player

Line

Over

Under

Anthony Cirelli

0.5

23.8¢FanDuel

83.1¢FanDuel

Blake Coleman

0.5

23.8¢FanDuel

83.1¢FanDuel

Brandon Hagel

0.5

Power-play points: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Brandon Hagel	0.5	21.7¢BetMGM	85.7¢BetMGM
Brayden Point	0.5	36.4¢BetMGM	71.4¢BetMGM
Jake Guentzel

Player

Line

Over

Under

Brandon Hagel

0.5

21.7¢BetMGM

85.7¢BetMGM

Brayden Point

0.5

36.4¢BetMGM

71.4¢BetMGM

Jake Guentzel

Saves: best over and under price per player
Player	Line	Over	Under
Dennis Hildeby	23.5	55.6¢FanDuel	51.5¢FanDuel
Jesper Wallstedt	24.5	56.5¢FanDuel	50.5¢FanDuel

Player

Line

Over

Under

Dennis Hildeby

23.5

55.6¢FanDuel

51.5¢FanDuel

Jesper Wallstedt

24.5

56.5¢FanDuel

50.5¢FanDuel

Contract	Fair
Total goals over 4.5	77.7%
Total goals under 4.5	22.3%
Total goals over 5.5	56.6%
Total goals under 5.5	43.4%
Total goals over 7.5	26.2%
Total goals under 7.5	73.8%
TBL goals over 2.5	65.1%
TBL goals under 2.5	34.9%
TBL goals over 3.5	43.8%
TBL goals under 3.5	56.2%
MIN goals over 2.5	55.7%
MIN goals under 2.5	44.3%
MIN goals over 3.5	34.2%
MIN goals under 3.5	65.8%
TBL puck line −2.5	23.8%
MIN puck line +2.5	76.2%
TBL puck line +2.5

Edges

At sportsbooks

Our model

Lineup goals model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines

MIN at TBL, NHL

Edges

At sportsbooks

Our model

Lineup goals model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines