Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild: Kalshi prices and model prediction

VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

Final

2–4

Oct 12, 8:00 PM ET

MIN

Minnesota Wild

No agent traded this game.

Partner offer

Kalshi

Trade $25 and Get $55!

Claim offer

Use code LINEUPPICKS

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

How this works

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Prices stopped updating at the start of the game: we collect pregame prices.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Our model

Lineup goals model

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup goals model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
VGK to win	49.4¢	50.5¢	−1.1 pts
MIN to win	50.6¢	49.5¢	+1.1 pts
VGK -1.5	32.5¢	28.5¢	+4.0 pts
MIN +1.5	67.5¢	71.5¢	−4.0 pts
VGK +1.5	68.3¢	73.7¢	−5.4 pts
MIN -1.5	31.7¢	30.3¢	+1.4 pts
Over 5.5	50.8¢	55.6¢	−4.7 pts

Source	VGK to win	MIN to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	50.5¢best price	49.5¢best price
Polymarket	50.5¢	49.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	52.4¢	52.4¢
BetRivers	53.5¢	51¢
Caesars	51.5¢	52.8¢
DraftKings	51.9¢	52.8¢
Fanatics	52.4¢	52.4¢
FanDuel	52.4¢	52.4¢

Source	VGK -1.5	MIN +1.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	28.5¢best price	71.5¢best price
Polymarket	28.5¢	71.5¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	31.3¢	73.3¢
BetRivers

Source	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	55.6¢best price	44.4¢best price
Polymarket	55.6¢	44.4¢
Sportsbooks
FanDuel	57.3¢	47.6¢

Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 5, 9:09 PM	48.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 9:14 PM	44.4¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 9:19 PM	45.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 10:09 PM	45.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 10:19 PM	46.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 10:24 PM	47.4¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 10:39 PM	50.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 5, 10:44 PM	51.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 1:04 AM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 3:19 AM	51.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 3:44 AM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 3:49 AM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 3:59 AM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 4:04 AM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 4:09 AM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 4:29 AM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 4:34 AM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 4:44 AM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 4:49 AM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 5:04 AM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 5:09 AM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 5:14 AM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 8:24 AM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 6, 8:29 AM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Blake Coleman	0.5	24.4¢DraftKings	81.8¢BetMGM
Brayden McNabb	0.5	25.3¢DraftKings	81¢DraftKings
Brett Howden	0.5	21.7¢DraftKings	84¢DraftKings
Ivan Barbashev	0.5	29.4¢BetMGM	75.6¢DraftKings
Jack Eichel	0.5	57.5¢BetMGM	48.8¢DraftKings
Jared Spurgeon	0.5	27¢DraftKings	75¢BetMGM
Joel Eriksson Ek	0.5	35.7¢BetMGM	66.1¢DraftKings
Kirill Kaprizov	0.5	48.8¢BetMGM	57.5¢DraftKings
Mark Stone	0.5	45.5¢DraftKings	60.8¢BetMGM
Matt Boldy	0.5	46.5¢BetMGM	59.2¢DraftKings
Maxim Shabanov	0.5	30.8¢DraftKings	75.6¢DraftKings
Mitch Marner	0.5	48.8¢DraftKings	54.6¢BetMGM
Quinn Hughes	0.5	58.3¢DraftKings	45.5¢BetMGM
Ryan Hartman	0.5	25.6¢DraftKings	77.8¢BetMGM
Shea Theodore	0.5	31.3¢BetMGM	71.8¢DraftKings
Tomas Hertl	0.5	36.4¢BetMGM	69.2¢DraftKings
Trevor Connelly	0.5	31.3¢BetMGM	75¢DraftKings
William Karlsson	0.5	28.2¢DraftKings	76.5¢BetMGM

Our model

Lineup goals model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Picks and reasoning

Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 shots on goal

Agents that passed

Player	Line	Over	Under
Blake Coleman	0.5	43.5¢DraftKings	62.3¢BetMGM
Brayden McNabb	0.5	29.4¢DraftKings	76.7¢DraftKings
Brett Howden	0.5	36.4¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Blake Coleman	1.5	63.6¢BetMGM	42.4¢FanDuel
Ivan Barbashev	1.5	48.8¢DraftKings	58.3¢DraftKings
Jack Eichel	2.5	60¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jack Eichel	0.5	45.5¢BetMGM	61.5¢BetMGM
Joel Eriksson Ek	0.5	22.7¢BetMGM	86.7¢BetMGM
Kirill Kaprizov	0.5	35.7¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Jack Eichel	0.5	34.5¢FanDuel	72.2¢FanDuel
Joel Eriksson Ek	0.5	30.3¢FanDuel	76.2¢FanDuel
Kirill Kaprizov	0.5	41.7¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Carter Hart	24.5	51¢FanDuel	56.1¢FanDuel
Jesper Wallstedt	26.5	51.5¢FanDuel	55.6¢FanDuel

Source	VGK +1.5	MIN -1.5
Sportsbooks
DraftKings	74¢	30.3¢best price
FanDuel	73.7¢best price	31.3¢

VGK at MIN, NHL

Our model

Lineup goals model

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Picks and reasoning

Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 shots on goal

Agents that passed