New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals: Kalshi prices and model prediction

NJD

New Jersey Devils

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 17

1:00 PM ET

WSH

Washington Capitals

Our model sees 23 edges in this game.

Track a pick

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup goals modelExperimental

Model38.3¢ NJDWSH 61.7¢

Best price47.4¢ KalshiKalshi 52.6¢

Track who winsNJD 47.4¢WSH 52.6¢

Partner offer

Kalshi

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Claim offer

Use code LINEUP

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Edges

On Kalshi and Polymarket

WSH -1.5
+11.4 pts
We give WSH a 41% chance to cover -1.5.
Our model 40.9¢Best price 29.5¢ at Kalshi
Lineup goals modelExperimental
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
WSH to win
+9.1 pts
We give WSH a 62% chance to win.

How this works

Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model gives WSH 9.1 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Exchange prices are midpoints; sportsbook prices include their margin.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.

Injuries show the reports since we started tracking them.

Ask the Analyst: Ask about this game: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.

Our model

Lineup goals model

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup goals model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
NJD to win	38.3¢	47.4¢	−9.1 pts
WSH to win	61.7¢	52.6¢	+9.1 pts
NJD +1.5	59.1¢	69.2¢	−10.1 pts
WSH -1.5	40.9¢	29.5¢	+11.4 pts
Over 6.5	48.3¢	47¢	+1.4 pts
Under 6.5	51.7¢	52.6¢	−0.9 pts
Over 6	51.2¢	53.9¢	−2.7 pts

Source	NJD to win	WSH to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	47.4¢best price	52.6¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket	47.4¢	52.6¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	48.8¢	55.6¢
BetRivers	49.5¢	54.8¢
Caesars	50¢	54.6¢
DraftKings	48.8¢	55.6¢
Fanatics	50¢	54.6¢
FanDuel	49¢	55.6¢

Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 10, 3:09 PM	48.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 3:19 PM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 3:29 PM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 3:49 PM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 3:54 PM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 4:14 PM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 5:29 PM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 7:39 PM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 7:44 PM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 8:04 PM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 8:19 PM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 8:34 PM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 8:39 PM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 8:54 PM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 8:59 PM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:04 PM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:09 PM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:04 PM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:19 PM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 12:19 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 12:34 AM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 12:59 AM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 11, 1:04 AM	56.5¢

Player	Line	Over	Under
Alex Ovechkin	0.5	53.5¢DraftKings	51.2¢BetMGM
Alex Tuch	0.5	55.6¢BetMGM	51.2¢BetMGM
Aliaksei Protas	0.5	38.5¢DraftKings	63.6¢BetMGM
Arseny Gritsyuk	0.5	40.8¢BetMGM	66.7¢BetMGM
Cole Hutson	0.5	40.8¢DraftKings	60.8¢BetMGM
Dawson Mercer	0.5	37¢BetMGM	70.2¢BetMGM
Dougie Hamilton	0.5	43.5¢DraftKings	60.8¢BetMGM
Dylan Strome	0.5	56.5¢DraftKings	46.5¢BetMGM
Evan Rodrigues	0.5	38.5¢BetMGM	67.7¢DraftKings
Ilya Protas	0.5	37.7¢DraftKings	65.5¢BetMGM
Jack Hughes	0.5	68.3¢DraftKings	37¢BetMGM
Jakob Chychrun	0.5	55.6¢BetMGM	50¢DraftKings
Jesper Bratt	0.5	60.8¢DraftKings	45.5¢BetMGM
Jordan Kyrou	0.5	47.6¢DraftKings	53.5¢BetMGM
Luke Hughes	0.5	53.5¢DraftKings	52.4¢BetMGM
Nico Hischier	0.5	59.2¢DraftKings	44.4¢BetMGM
Ryan Leonard	0.5	47.6¢DraftKings	58.3¢BetMGM
Timo Meier	0.5	44.4¢DraftKings	54.6¢BetMGM
Tom Wilson	0.5	52.4¢DraftKings	48.8¢BetMGM
Vincent Desharnais	0.5	25.6¢DraftKings	81¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Alex Ovechkin	0.5	33.3¢BetMGM	73.3¢BetMGM
Alex Tuch	0.5	34.5¢DraftKings	71.4¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Alex Ovechkin	2.5	47.6¢BetMGM	56.5¢DraftKings
Alex Tuch	2.5	43.5¢DraftKings	60.3¢FanDuel

Edges

On Kalshi and Polymarket

Our model

Lineup goals model

At sportsbooks

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines

Source	NJD +1.5	WSH -1.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	70.5¢	29.5¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket

Player	Line	Over	Under
Alex Ovechkin	0.5	28.6¢BetMGM	79¢BetMGM
Dylan Strome	0.5	28.6¢BetMGM	79¢BetMGM

Player	Line	Over	Under
Alex Tuch	0.5	32.3¢FanDuel	74.4¢FanDuel
Dylan Strome	0.5	25.6¢FanDuel	81.5¢FanDuel

Contract	Fair
Total goals over 4.5	78.2%
Total goals under 4.5	21.8%
Total goals over 5.5	57.3%
Total goals under 5.5	42.7%
Total goals over 7.5	26.9%
Total goals under 7.5	73.1%
WSH goals over 2.5	62.7%
WSH goals under 2.5	37.3%
WSH goals over 3.5	41.3%
WSH goals under 3.5	58.7%
NJD goals over 2.5	59.2%
NJD goals under 2.5	40.8%
NJD goals over 3.5	37.7%
NJD goals under 3.5	62.3%
WSH puck line −2.5	20.1%
NJD puck line +2.5	79.9%
WSH puck line +2.5

NJD at WSH, NHL

Edges

On Kalshi and Polymarket

Our model

Lineup goals model

At sportsbooks

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines