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NFL predictions for Sunday, October 11, 2026

How the model did

  • Our model's favourite won 9 of 12 games.
  • Its chance was closer to the result than the last Kalshi or Polymarket price before the start in 8 of 12.
  • Biggest miss: our model gave the Atlanta Falcons 62% and they lost.
  • Best call: the Cincinnati Bengals won at 74.5¢, with our model at 76%.
Philadelphia Eagles logoPhiladelphia Eagles logoPhiladelphia EaglesJacksonville Jaguars logoJacksonville Jaguars logoJacksonville Jaguars
FinalPHI 17, JAX 19

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • PHIModel 22%Kalshi 23.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.2 pts model vs market
  • JAXModel 78%Kalshi 76.5¢ (Last price before the start)+1.2 pts model vs market
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Houston Texans logoHouston Texans logoHouston TexansTennessee Titans logoTennessee Titans logoTennessee Titans
FinalHOU 26, TEN 3

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • HOUModel 74%Kalshi 73.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.8 pts model vs market
  • TENModel 26%Kalshi 26.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.8 pts model vs market
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Cincinnati Bengals logoCincinnati Bengals logoCincinnati BengalsMiami Dolphins logoMiami Dolphins logoMiami Dolphins
FinalCIN 31, MIA 24

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • CINModel 76%Kalshi 74.5¢ (Last price before the start)+1.7 pts model vs market
  • MIAModel 24%Kalshi 25.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.7 pts model vs market
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Las Vegas Raiders logoLas Vegas Raiders logoLas Vegas RaidersNew England Patriots logoNew England Patriots logoNew England Patriots
FinalLV 17, NE 45

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • LVModel 37%Kalshi 37.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.6 pts model vs market
  • NEModel 63%Kalshi 62.6¢ (Last price before the start)+0.6 pts model vs market
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Minnesota Vikings logoMinnesota Vikings logoMinnesota VikingsNew Orleans Saints logoNew Orleans Saints logoNew Orleans Saints
FinalMIN 23, NO 13

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • MINModel 56%Kalshi 55.6¢ (Last price before the start)0.0 pts model vs market
  • NOModel 44%Kalshi 44.4¢ (Last price before the start)0.0 pts model vs market
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Cleveland Browns logoCleveland Browns logoCleveland BrownsNew York Jets logoNew York Jets logoNew York Jets
FinalCLE 12, NYJ 17

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • CLEModel 44%Polymarket 43.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.2 pts model vs market
  • NYJModel 56%Polymarket 56.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.2 pts model vs market
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Indianapolis Colts logoIndianapolis Colts logoIndianapolis ColtsPittsburgh Steelers logoPittsburgh Steelers logoPittsburgh Steelers
FinalIND 22, PIT 34

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • INDModel 40%Kalshi 40.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.1 pts model vs market
  • PITModel 60%Kalshi 59.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.1 pts model vs market
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New York Giants logoNew York Giants logoNew York GiantsWashington Commanders logoWashington Commanders logoWashington Commanders
FinalNYG 27, WSH 27

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • NYGModel 37%Polymarket 37.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.2 pts model vs market
  • WSHModel 63%Polymarket 62.6¢ (Last price before the start)+0.2 pts model vs market
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Chicago Bears logoChicago Bears logoChicago BearsGreen Bay Packers logoGreen Bay Packers logoGreen Bay Packers
FinalCHI 7, GB 31

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • CHIModel 53%Kalshi 51.5¢ (Last price before the start)+1.3 pts model vs market
  • GBModel 47%Kalshi 48.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.3 pts model vs market
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Denver Broncos logoDenver Broncos logoDenver BroncosLos Angeles Chargers logoLos Angeles Chargers logoLos Angeles Chargers
FinalDEN 23, LAC 17

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • DENModel 63%Polymarket 62.6¢ (Last price before the start)+0.4 pts model vs market
  • LACModel 37%Polymarket 37.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.4 pts model vs market
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Detroit Lions logoDetroit Lions logoDetroit LionsArizona Cardinals logoArizona Cardinals logoArizona Cardinals
FinalDET 45, ARI 21

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • DETModel 69%Kalshi 69.5¢ (Last price before the start)−0.6 pts model vs market
  • ARIModel 31%Kalshi 30.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.6 pts model vs market
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San Francisco 49ers logoSan Francisco 49ers logoSan Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks logoSeattle Seahawks logoSeattle Seahawks
FinalSF 32, SEA 29

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • SFModel 40%Kalshi 41.5¢ (Last price before the start)−1.8 pts model vs market
  • SEAModel 60%Kalshi 58.5¢ (Last price before the start)+1.8 pts model vs market
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Baltimore Ravens logoBaltimore Ravens logoBaltimore RavensAtlanta Falcons logoAtlanta Falcons logoAtlanta Falcons
FinalBAL 30, ATL 23

Lineup points model (Experimental), as of the start

  • BALModel 38%Kalshi 37.5¢ (Last price before the start)+0.6 pts model vs market
  • ATLModel 62%Kalshi 62.6¢ (Last price before the start)−0.6 pts model vs market
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.