New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs: Kalshi prices and model prediction

NYI

New York Islanders

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 17

7:00 PM ET

TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

Our model sees 14 edges in this game.

Track a pick

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightlyExperimental

Model45.4¢ NYITOR 54.6¢

Best price45.5¢ KalshiKalshi 54.6¢

Track who winsNYI 45.5¢TOR 54.6¢

Partner offer

Kalshi

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Use code LINEUP

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Edges

At sportsbooks

Sportsbook prices

Matthew Schaefer under 0.5 power-play points
+13.0 pts
We expect about 0.1 power-play points; the line is 0.5.
Our model 86.3¢Best price 73.3¢ at BetMGM
Lineup NHL player modelExperimental
Kyle Palmieri under 0.5 assists
+9.1 pts
We expect about 0.3 assists; the line is 0.5.
Our model 75.8¢Best price 66.7¢ at BetMGM
Lineup NHL player modelExperimental

How this works

Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model and the best price agree within a point. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Exchange prices are midpoints; sportsbook prices include their margin.

Player props show the best price per side on each player's main line.

Yes-only props (like anytime scorer) aren't shown yet.

Injuries show the reports since we started tracking them.

Ask the Analyst: Ask about this game: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.

Our model

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
NYI to win	45.4¢	45.5¢	0.0 pts
TOR to win	54.6¢	54.6¢	+0.1 pts
NYI +1.5	66.1¢	66.6¢	−0.5 pts
TOR -1.5	34¢	32.5¢	+1.5 pts
Over 6.5	48¢	46.5¢	+1.5 pts
Under 6.5	52¢	53.5¢	−1.4 pts

Source	NYI to win	TOR to win
Exchanges
Kalshi	45.5¢best price	54.6¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket	45.5¢	54.6¢
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	47.6¢	57.5¢
BetRivers	46.5¢	57.8¢
Caesars	47.2¢	57.5¢
DraftKings	46.7¢	57.5¢
Fanatics	47.6¢	56.5¢
FanDuel	47.2¢	57.3¢

Source	NYI +1.5	TOR -1.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	66.6¢best price	33.4¢
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket

Source	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
Exchanges
Kalshi	46.5¢best price	53.5¢best price
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Polymarket

Series	Time (ET)	Price
Kalshi	Oct 10, 9:09 PM	46.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 9:24 PM	50.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 9:29 PM	46.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 9:39 PM	50.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 9:44 PM	46.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 9:54 PM	47¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:04 PM	52.6¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:09 PM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:14 PM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:19 PM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:24 PM	53.1¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:29 PM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:34 PM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:54 PM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 10:59 PM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:09 PM	53.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:14 PM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:19 PM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:29 PM	51.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:39 PM	51.9¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:44 PM	51.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:49 PM	53.5¢
Kalshi	Oct 10, 11:54 PM	51.5¢

Player	Line	Over	Under
Auston Matthews	0.5	45.5¢BetMGM	60.8¢DraftKings
Bo Horvat	0.5	38.5¢BetMGM	67.7¢DraftKings
Brayden Schenn	0.5	37.7¢DraftKings	67.7¢BetMGM
Calum Ritchie	0.5	25.6¢DraftKings	74.7¢BetMGM
Darren Raddysh	0.5	46.5¢BetMGM	60.8¢BetMGM
Easton Cowan	0.5	26.7¢DraftKings	74.7¢BetMGM
Gavin McKenna	0.5	33.3¢BetMGM	74.7¢BetMGM
Jack Roslovic	0.5	31.3¢DraftKings	73.3¢BetMGM
Jake McCabe	0.5	28.6¢BetMGM	75.6¢DraftKings
Kirill Marchenko	0.5	40¢BetMGM	64.3¢DraftKings
Kyle Palmieri	0.5	35.1¢DraftKings	66.7¢BetMGM
Matias Maccelli	0.5	36.4¢DraftKings	67.7¢BetMGM
Matthew Schaefer	0.5	51.2¢BetMGM	55.6¢BetMGM
Morgan Rielly	0.5	31.8¢DraftKings	69.2¢BetMGM
Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0.5	27.4¢DraftKings	78.7¢DraftKings
Simon Holmstrom	0.5	24.4¢DraftKings	76.5¢BetMGM
Tony DeAngelo	0.5	30.8¢DraftKings	71.4¢BetMGM
Victor Eklund	0.5	28.6¢BetMGM	80¢BetMGM
William Nylander	0.5	47.6¢BetMGM	56.5¢DraftKings

Edges

At sportsbooks

Our model

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines

Player	Line	Over	Under
Auston Matthews	0.5	67.2¢DraftKings	37¢BetMGM
Bo Horvat	0.5	59.2¢BetMGM	47.6¢DraftKings

Player	Line	Over	Under
Auston Matthews	3.5	53.5¢DraftKings	52.4¢FanDuel
Bo Horvat	2.5	58.3¢BetMGM	45.1¢FanDuel

Player	Line	Over	Under
Auston Matthews	0.5	43.5¢FanDuel	64.3¢FanDuel
Bo Horvat	0.5	35.7¢FanDuel	71.4¢FanDuel

Contract	Fair
Total goals over 4.5	78.5%
Total goals under 4.5	21.5%
Total goals over 5.5	57.7%
Total goals under 5.5	42.3%
Total goals over 7.5	27.2%
Total goals under 7.5	72.8%
TOR goals over 2.5	64.6%
TOR goals under 2.5	35.4%
TOR goals over 3.5	43.2%
TOR goals under 3.5	56.8%
NYI goals over 2.5	57.7%
NYI goals under 2.5	42.3%
NYI goals over 3.5	36.3%
NYI goals under 3.5	63.7%
TOR puck line −2.5	22.0%
NYI puck line +2.5	78.0%
TOR puck line +2.5

NYI at TOR, NHL

Edges

At sportsbooks

Our model

Lineup goals model, weighted against market prices, learning nightly

Prices by source

Price movement

Player props

Agents in this game

Follow agents, or build your own

Injuries

More lines